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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

My Picks... Election 2008 Map Prediction

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

Well, I'm being a little optimistic on a few states, but this is my pick for how the election unfolds. I was close on the Democratic primary - I only missed on Indiana in my private picks - so I thought I'd share these. I will admit that I know the Democratic mindset better than Republican, so I might be a bit off. Here's my reasoning on a few key states:

Pennsylvania: New York/New Jersey border will be heavy Obama, and I think middle america here can overcome their reservations.

Ohio: No geographic "Obama-friendly" borders, the rust belt still suffers from some racism, and Hillary won the primary.

Indiana: Home of the KKK, went slightly Hillary in the primary. Large swaths of the countryside are also fairly religious and conservative. Should go McCain.

North Carolina: Large African-American population and massive victory for Obama in the primary indicates a good chance of turnout carrying this state for him. I predict enthusiasm and organizational skills win the day for Obama here.

Virginia: Demographic changes in Northern Virginia, Mark Warner's Coattails, an Obama victory in the primary, and solid organization imply that Obama should squeak out Virginia as well.

Georgia: This should be closer than the polls suggest, and a significant African-american population and strong organization help Obama, but I think that Georgia's "southern Republican" mindset will win the day.

Florida: With Lieberman stumping for McCain, and Obama lenient towards Palestine and favoring talks with Raul Castro, I see the Jewish and Right-wing Cuban votes going McCain. Florida may go McCain by a solid margin.

New Mexico: Bill Richardson wins the state for Obama.

Nevada: Close call - I think general Obama enthusiasm and the California border should help, here. I don't know much about Nevada.

Colorado: I'm optimistic, I think Obama will pull through based on momentum and turnout, even though strong conservative elements suggest a good core turnout for McCain.

Overall - I think the polls are underestimating turnout and enthusiasm in the Democratic party. This won't be a blowout election, but Obama should win by a clear margin.

2 comments:

Conor from Ohio said...

I notice you did not call Ohio. Cmon' Nostradamus. Thats the only call that matters.

Sean said...

Yes I did - its the second post. Ohio swings McCain by just a little.